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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the current field is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and recent strugglers rising together. In an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still